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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Volume
$5,944,398.98
Bids
2,384
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
View source
3,487 64,465 views

Where the money is

YES 34% NO 66%

The line tracks the share of staked money sitting on YES. Odds are fixed, so this is what each bid moves.

Rules and settlement

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Resolves YES if U.S. forces launch a sustained ground invasion of Iran before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, resolves NO. Airstrikes, missile strikes, naval attacks, or limited military operations without a ground invasion do not count.

Place a bid

Odds are locked onto your bid at placement.

YES 12% NO 88%
$
Odds 12.70
You receive if right $0.00
Profit $0.00
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